Prediction Vote APIs: Probabilities Are Not Polls or Results
A 70% probability does not mean 70% of the vote. Learn to define forecast events, preserve model versions, and present uncertainty without implying a result.
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Predictions Reading Path
Prediction content needs a clearly defined question before it needs a numerical display. This tag collects the Lab’s probability guide and links it to the surrounding election-data topics. Its purpose is to help readers distinguish uncertainty about an event from a recorded count, a poll response, or a declared result.
Read the forecast’s event definition, timing, and resolution rule together. The same number can be attached to different questions, and comparable-looking percentages can describe different quantities. A useful interface preserves the question beside the value instead of leaving the reader to infer it from a chart or headline.
Put the ideas to work
Create two hypothetical questions about the same event that have different resolution criteria. Explain how each would be settled and why their probabilities need not be interchangeable. Then write a short display label that would prevent confusion. This exercise concerns interpretation and interface design, not a claim about prediction accuracy.
Questions to keep in view
- Question definition
- Resolution
- Observation time
- Interpretation
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Explore the topic guides
Use these focused pages to connect the article discussion to the wider VoteAPI.com guide.
Choose another starting point
The Lab connects API design to the purpose of the information and the people using it. Explore the complete collection to compare related questions and discover a useful next step.
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