Prediction Vote APIs: Probabilities Are Not Polls or Results
A 70% probability does not mean 70% of the vote. Learn to define forecast events, preserve model versions, and present uncertainty without implying a result.
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Predictions Articles
A forecast answers a question about uncertainty. It needs a clear event, a time horizon, and an agreed way to determine what happened. This collection helps readers interpret probability fields without treating them as observed vote totals, polling percentages, or official election outcomes.
Begin with the question text and its resolution conditions. Then ask when the probability was produced and which assumptions belong beside it. A readable percentage can still hide an unclear event definition. The useful work is to make that definition visible before discussing any visual presentation.
Put the ideas to work
Write a hypothetical question and list two reasonable interpretations of its wording. If those interpretations could resolve differently, revise the question. Next, design a display that carries the event definition and observation time with the value. These exercises build data literacy; they do not promise forecast performance or offer a prediction service.
Questions to keep in view
- What exact event is being forecast?
- When and how would the question be resolved?
- Is the value a probability, a poll response, or a count?
- What information would make the forecast unsuitable for comparison?
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